How Experts Approach Uncertain Future Earnings When Career Evidence Is Limited

Assessing future earnings can be more difficult when there is limited evidence about a claimant's likely career development before the relevant event. This may arise where a claimant was young, had only recently entered employment, was still studying or training, had an interrupted work history, or had not yet established a clear occupational direction.

A future earnings expert may need to consider the evidence that is available and identify the assumptions required to prepare the assessment. Limited career evidence does not necessarily prevent an assessment, but it can increase the importance of clearly identifying uncertainty and explaining the basis for any future earnings assumptions.

The analysis may therefore consider the available evidence and the financial implications of potential career scenarios without presenting a particular future outcome as certain.

Why Future Career Evidence Might Be Limited

Not every claimant will have a long or consistent employment history from which future earnings can readily be projected.

Limited career evidence may arise where a claimant:

• Was at an early stage of their working life
• Had recently started a first job
• Was completing education or vocational training
• Had changed occupations several times
• Had periods outside employment
• Was working in a temporary or junior role
• Had not yet established a long-term occupation

In these circumstances, actual earnings before the relevant event may provide only part of the information needed to consider potential future earnings.

What Evidence Might Still Be Available?

Even where employment records are limited, other evidence may provide useful information about the claimant's circumstances.

Education and Training

Educational and training records may help establish the claimant's qualifications, areas of study and stage of development before the relevant event.

Depending on the circumstances, relevant material may include:

• School or college records
• University records
• Vocational training records
• Apprenticeship information
• Professional qualifications
• Training or examination results
• Evidence of courses being undertaken

Such evidence may provide context for potential occupational directions. It does not necessarily establish that a claimant would have followed a particular career.

Employment Records

Available employment records may provide information about the claimant's actual work experience and earnings.

These could include:

• Employment contracts
• Payslips
• Tax records
• Salary information
• Job descriptions
• Performance records
• Promotion information
• Records of changes in responsibilities

Where employment was relatively recent, even a limited history may help establish the claimant's starting position and circumstances before the relevant event.

Evidence of Career Intentions

A claimant may also have expressed an intention to pursue a particular occupation or career direction.

Evidence could include:

• Job applications
• Correspondence with employers
• Applications for training
• Recruitment information
• Career planning documents
• Evidence of professional development
• Relevant statements recorded before the event

The weight that can be given to such material will depend on the circumstances, including its timing, source and relevance to the proposed career path.

How Experts May Deal With Uncertainty

Future earnings necessarily involve consideration of an outcome that cannot be known with certainty. Where career evidence is limited, an expert may need to identify the assumptions used in the assessment rather than presenting a particular earnings outcome as certain.

The analysis may distinguish between:

• Facts supported by documentary evidence
• Assumptions based on the available evidence
• Information about relevant occupations and earnings
• Projections concerning potential future employment

This distinction can make the basis of the assessment clearer and help identify where uncertainty remains.

Considering More Than One Potential Career Path

Limited evidence does not always point toward a single possible career.

For example, a claimant may have had qualifications or interests that were relevant to several occupations. There may also have been more than one plausible progression route from the claimant's existing employment.

Where the evidence supports this, the analysis may consider alternative career scenarios rather than assuming that one particular outcome would necessarily have occurred.

Each scenario may involve different assumptions about:

• Occupation
• Earnings
• Career progression
• Employment duration
• Working patterns
• Potential advancement

The relevance of each scenario will depend on the evidence available in the individual case.

The Importance of Pre-Event Circumstances

The circumstances immediately before the relevant event can be important when considering uncertain future earnings.

An assessment may consider the claimant's:

• Age
• Employment status
• Occupation
• Qualifications
• Work experience
• Earnings history
• Career development
• Training
• Documented career intentions

These factors do not necessarily determine future earnings. They may instead provide context for evaluating potential career development based on the available evidence.

Labour Market Evidence

Where a claimant's individual career evidence is limited, information about the relevant labour market may provide additional context.

Depending on the occupation, this may include information concerning:

• Typical earnings
• Qualification requirements
• Career progression
• Occupational structures
• Employment opportunities
• Industry-specific earnings patterns

Labour market information should generally be considered alongside the claimant's individual circumstances. General earnings information does not, by itself, establish what a particular claimant would have earned.

Young Claimants and Early-Career Workers

Uncertainty can be particularly relevant where a claimant had only recently entered the workforce or had not yet established a long-term career.

A young claimant may have limited earnings records because they were:

• Still studying
• Undertaking vocational training
• Starting their first employment
• Working part-time
• Working in a temporary role
• Moving between education and employment

In such cases, the available evidence may need to be considered more broadly. Educational attainment, qualifications, employment experience and evidence of career intentions may all be relevant, depending on the circumstances.

The assessment should avoid assuming that a particular career would have followed simply because it was one possible option.

Interrupted or Inconsistent Employment Histories

Limited career evidence may also arise where a claimant's employment history was interrupted.

Periods outside employment can have different explanations, including:

• Education or training
• Family circumstances
• Changes of occupation
• Redundancy
• Temporary employment
• Other personal or employment circumstances

An interrupted employment history does not necessarily provide a straightforward basis for predicting future earnings. The reasons for the interruptions and the wider employment history may therefore need to be considered when reviewing potential future earnings.

How Experts May Address Competing Assumptions

Uncertainty can arise not only because evidence is limited, but also because different assumptions could reasonably be made from the same evidence.

For example, one interpretation may involve continued employment in the claimant's existing occupation, while another may involve a potential career change supported by evidence of training or applications.

Where competing assumptions are relevant, an expert may explain the basis for the approach taken and identify material factors that could affect the calculation.

This can help distinguish an evidence-based assessment from an unsupported assumption about the claimant's future career.

What Solicitors May Consider Before Instructing an Expert

Where the available career evidence is limited, it may be useful to gather relevant background information before an expert assessment is prepared.

This may include:

• Employment records
• Earnings information
• Educational records
• Qualifications
• Training records
• Job applications
• Evidence of proposed career development
• Information about previous occupations
• Relevant evidence concerning career intentions

It can also be useful to identify areas where the parties may have different views about the claimant's likely career progression.

Providing relevant information can assist the expert in understanding the circumstances and identifying the assumptions that require consideration.

Distinguishing Uncertainty From Lack of Evidence

Uncertainty and lack of evidence are related but should not necessarily be treated as the same issue.

A case may contain substantial evidence but still involve uncertainty because the claimant's future career could have developed in more than one way. Conversely, a case may have limited evidence about the claimant's intended career direction.

Recognising this distinction can help explain why a future earnings assessment contains assumptions or alternative scenarios.

The expert's role is not necessarily to remove all uncertainty. Rather, the assessment may need to identify the available evidence, explain the assumptions used and show how those assumptions affect the financial analysis.

Conclusion

A future earnings assessment can involve uncertainty where evidence about a claimant's likely career development is limited. This may be particularly relevant for young claimants, early-career workers, people completing education or training, and claimants with interrupted or developing employment histories.

Employment records, educational qualifications, training, career intentions and relevant labour market evidence may all provide useful context. Where more than one career path is reasonably supported by the available evidence, alternative scenarios may also need consideration.

A clear assessment should distinguish documented facts from assumptions and future projections. This can help solicitors and other parties understand how limited career evidence has been considered and where uncertainty remains.

For further information about the role of a future earnings expert, see What Is a Future Earnings Expert?.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information about future earnings assessments and is not legal or financial advice. The evidence and methodology relevant to an individual claim will depend on the particular circumstances of the claim. Last Reviewed: October 2026