How Experts Assess Alternative Career Paths in Future Earnings Claims

A future loss of earnings assessment can become more complex when a claimant had more than one plausible career direction before the relevant event. This may occur where a person was considering a career change, progressing through training, working toward a qualification, or developing within an occupation with several possible progression routes.

In these circumstances, a future earnings expert may consider evidence about the claimant's education, qualifications, employment history, career progression and potential occupational options. The assessment will generally depend on the particular evidence available and the assumptions within the scope of the instruction.

The aim is not necessarily to treat one proposed career as certain. Instead, the analysis may consider the financial implications of career scenarios that can reasonably be supported by the available evidence.

Why Alternative Career Paths May Be Relevant

Pre-event earnings can provide useful information about a claimant's circumstances, but they may not always describe the full range of potential future earnings.

For example, before the relevant event, a claimant may have:

• Been working in an entry-level position
• Been completing education or vocational training
• Been working toward a professional qualification
• Been considering a change of occupation
• Been receiving increased responsibilities at work
• Been exploring more than one potential occupation

These circumstances may require consideration of evidence beyond the claimant's immediate earnings before the relevant event.

For more information about the wider role of a future earnings expert, see What Is a Future Earnings Expert?.

What Evidence May Be Relevant?

The assessment of alternative career paths depends on the evidence available in the particular case. Different types of evidence may provide different information about a claimant's background and potential career development.

Employment History

Previous employment can provide context about a claimant's experience, responsibilities and progression.

Depending on the circumstances, relevant information may include:

• Previous occupations and job titles
• Length of employment
• Changes in salary
• Promotions or changes in responsibility
• Employment in different sectors
• Periods of training or career transition

Employment history does not necessarily establish what would have happened in the future. It may, however, provide useful context when considering possible career development.

Education and Qualifications

Academic and professional qualifications may also be relevant to the assessment.

Evidence could include:

• Educational records
• Professional qualifications
• Training certificates
• Apprenticeships
• Completed or partially completed courses
• Evidence of professional development

A qualification does not necessarily establish that a claimant would have entered a particular occupation. Its significance may depend on how it relates to the claimant's experience, stated plans and other evidence.

Evidence of Career Progression

Documents concerning actual career progression may help provide context for a proposed future career.

Depending on the circumstances, this could include:

• Promotion discussions
• Performance reviews
• Job applications
• Recruitment correspondence
• Employment offers
• Salary information
• Training plans
• Evidence of increasing responsibilities

Such material may support consideration of a particular career direction, but it does not necessarily demonstrate that a promotion, job offer or career change would have occurred.

How Alternative Career Scenarios May Be Considered

Where the evidence supports more than one possible career direction, a future earnings expert may consider the financial implications of the different scenarios.

For example, a claimant might have had:

1. A possible continuation of their existing occupation
2. A potential progression into a more senior position
3. A possible move into another occupation following additional training

Each scenario could involve different assumptions about earnings, career progression and the period over which those earnings might have been received.

The expert may therefore explain the assumptions relevant to the scenarios being considered and assess the financial consequences within the scope of the instruction.

Why One Career Outcome Should Not Automatically Be Treated as Certain

Future earnings assessments necessarily involve consideration of what might have happened after the relevant event. A proposed career move, promotion or qualification should not automatically be treated as certain simply because there is some evidence supporting it.

Depending on the circumstances, an assessment may consider:

• Whether the claimant had already started pursuing the proposed career
• Whether relevant qualifications had been obtained or were being pursued
• Whether there was evidence of suitable employment opportunities
• Whether similar progression had occurred previously
• Whether the proposed occupation was consistent with the claimant's experience
• Whether other evidence supports a different potential outcome

This approach can help distinguish evidence-based assumptions from outcomes that may be difficult to substantiate.

The Role of Labour Market Evidence

Alternative career paths may also require consideration of labour market evidence relevant to the occupations under consideration.

Depending on the case, this information may relate to:

• Typical earnings
• Employment opportunities
• Qualification requirements
• Career progression
• Occupational structures
• Regional employment conditions
• Industry-specific patterns

The relevance of this information will depend on the claimant's circumstances and the occupations being considered. Labour market information may provide context, but it does not necessarily establish that a particular claimant would have followed a specific career path.

Alternative Career Paths for Young Claimants

Alternative career considerations can be particularly relevant where a young claimant had a relatively limited established employment history before the relevant event.

A claimant may have been:

• Still in education
• Completing vocational training
• Starting their first employment
• Considering several occupations
• Working in a temporary or junior position

In such cases, actual pre-event earnings may provide limited information about longer-term earning potential because the claimant's working career was still developing.

Other evidence, including educational attainment, qualifications, work experience and documented career intentions, may therefore be relevant when considering potential future career paths.

The evidence should still be considered in the context of the particular claimant rather than assuming that a specific career outcome would have occurred.

What If the Evidence Is Uncertain?

Not every future earnings claim will provide clear evidence of a single potential career.

Where evidence is incomplete or different career possibilities exist, the assessment may need to acknowledge that uncertainty. An expert may consider the information available and explain the assumptions used in reaching the financial calculation.

It can therefore be useful to distinguish between:

• Established facts, such as documented employment history or completed qualifications
• Evidence-supported assumptions, such as a potential career progression supported by relevant records
• Future projections, which necessarily involve uncertainty about what might otherwise have happened

This distinction can help solicitors, opposing experts and other decision-makers understand the basis on which a future earnings assessment has been prepared.

Questions Solicitors May Consider Before Instructing an Expert

Where alternative career paths are relevant to a loss of earnings claim, it may be useful to identify the evidence available before the expert is instructed.

Questions may include:

• What was the claimant's employment history before the relevant event?
• What qualifications had the claimant obtained or been working toward?
• Was there evidence of a planned career change?
• Were there documented indications of possible promotion or progression?
• What alternative occupations were being considered?
• What evidence supports each potential career direction?
• Is there relevant information about earnings in the occupations under consideration?
• Are there competing assumptions that may need to be addressed?

Providing relevant background material can help an expert understand the circumstances in which the future earnings assessment is being prepared.

Distinguishing Evidence From Projection

A future earnings assessment involving alternative career paths may require careful separation of what is known from what is projected.

For example, a claimant's previous employment, qualifications and salary may be matters supported by documentary evidence. Whether the claimant would subsequently have obtained a promotion, changed occupation or reached a particular level of earnings is different and may require an assessment based on the available evidence.

Keeping these distinctions clear can make it easier to understand the assumptions underlying the calculation and identify areas where evidence may be incomplete or contested.

Conclusion

Assessing alternative career paths in a future loss of earnings claim may require consideration of evidence extending beyond the claimant's immediate pre-event income.

Employment history, education, qualifications, career progression, proposed career changes and relevant labour market evidence may all contribute to the analysis. Where more than one potential career path is supported by the evidence, the assessment may consider the financial implications of those different scenarios rather than automatically treating one outcome as certain.

A structured future earnings assessment can therefore distinguish documented facts from assumptions and future projections while explaining how the relevant career possibilities have been considered.

For information about instructing a future earnings expert, see How to Instruct a Future Earnings Expert.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information about future earnings assessments and is not legal or financial advice. The evidence and methodology relevant to an individual claim will depend on its particular circumstances. Last Reviewed: September 2026